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緊急経済対策 「真水15兆円」を賢く使え

The Yomiuri Shimbun(Apr. 10, 2009)
Record stimulus package must be spent wisely
緊急経済対策 「真水15兆円」を賢く使え(4月10日付・読売社説)

The government and ruling parties have compiled the nation's largest-ever economic stimulus package, worth 56.8 trillion yen, which includes 15.4 trillion yen in actual fiscal spending.
 事業費56・8兆円、財政出動の真水で15・4兆円という史上最大の景気対策を、政府・与党がまとめた。

This package is about twice the size of the one hammered out during the financial recession a decade ago by the administration of then Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi.
 約10年前の金融不況時に小渕内閣が出した対策の2倍の規模で、戦後最悪の不況を食い止めるための大胆な財政出動だ。

The latest package is a drastic fiscal move and also could prove to be a double-edged sword, as it would generate a huge deficit. Spending must be carried out wisely to boost the economy and strengthen its growth potential.
 巨額の財政赤字というツケを残す「もろ刃の剣」でもある。景気浮揚と成長力強化の効果に優れた「賢い支出」にすべきだ。

The government and ruling parties should expedite the compilation of a supplementary budget and its passage through the Diet in order to implement the stimulus measures, and also bounce ideas off each other to ensure the content will truly be effective.
 補正予算の編成・成立を急ぐとともにアイデアをぶつけ合い、内容に磨きをかけてもらいたい。

It is estimated that a fiscal outlay of 15 trillion yen would generate about 20 trillion yen in demand. This could compensate for the shortage in demand in the economy. The Cabinet Office predicts that the employment rate, which eventually could peak at between 7 percent and 8 percent, would stay at about 5.5 percent or so if the stimulus plan were put into place. Given the current economic situation, the amount of spending seems adequate.
 15兆円の財政出動で約20兆円の需要が生まれるとの試算がある。日本経済の需要不足を穴埋めできる数字だ。内閣府は、7%台に上昇しそうな失業率が5・5%程度におさまると見込む。経済情勢からみて規模は妥当と言えよう。

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Broad stimulus ideas

The measures are wide-ranging as they include moves to secure employment, as well as emergency measures to ease pain caused by the economic downturn, such as financial assistance to cash-strapped small and midsized businesses. There also are measures to stimulate consumption, investment and other domestic demand. This is because the nation's economy cannot depend on external demand from the United States and other countries, as it does not look as though their respective economic recoveries will occur soon.
 政策メニューには、雇用対策や中小企業の資金繰り支援など不況の痛みを和らげる応急策に加え、消費や投資など内需を呼び起こす政策も幅広く並んだ。米国など海外経済は早期回復の道筋が見えず外需に期待できないためだ。

Subsidies for consumers purchasing fuel-efficient automobiles and energy-saving home electric appliances are expected not only to serve the original goal of helping the environment, but also to help such products recover in sales. And in order to make sure these boosts in sales are not temporary, manufacturers should do their utmost, outside of government-subsidized help, to develop new products that appeal to consumers.
 低燃費車や省エネ家電への買い替え補助は、本来の目的である地球環境改善と同時に、売れ行きの回復も期待される。一時的なブームに終わらぬよう、メーカーは補助なしでも売れる魅力的な商品の開発に全力を挙げてほしい。

Reductions in the gift tax, meanwhile, would be applied only when children or grandchildren receive financial assets from their families for the purpose of buying a home. The upper gift tax exemption limit would be raised by 5 million yen, but this increase does not seem as though it will be enough to help spur housing purchases. Apparently in concern over public criticism that the measure benefits only the affluent, government officials and ruling bloc lawmakers specified the target of the measure and decided to expand the exemption limit by only a modest amount.
 一方、贈与税の軽減は子や孫が住宅を買う場合などに限られた。非課税枠の追加も500万円と住宅購入の促進としては物足りない。「金持ち優遇」の批判を恐れ、使途や金額を抑えたのだろう。

If the economy is invigorated by the use of dormant financial assets held by elderly people, it likely would benefit the entire population. The scope of the gift tax measure should be further expanded to bring about more positive effects to the economy.
 高齢者の抱える休眠資産を生かして経済が活性化すれば、恩恵は国民全体に及ぶはずだ。効果が出るよう、もっと拡充すべきだ。

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Think beyond 3-year period

Subsidies for measures to improve benefits for care workers and improve nursing care facilities would increase employment opportunities in the growing welfare service industry. But as the subsidies are only valid for a three-year period, impact would be temporary.
 介護職員の処遇改善や介護施設整備への助成などは、成長が見込まれる福祉分野の雇用機会を広げる。ただし、3年間の時限措置では一時的な効果にとどまる。

The government must secure a stable financial source to sustain the nation's social security services through increases in the consumption tax and other measures, once the economy gets on a recovery track.
 景気回復を待って消費税増税などで安定財源を確保し、社会保障をしっかり支えねばならない。

In regards to public works projects, which are said to be very effective in boosting the economy, the focus will be on those that put priority on "the environment" and "safety." However, thorough checks will be needed to make sure such labels are not taken advantage of to disguise wasteful projects.
 景気浮揚の効果が高いとされる公共事業も、「環境」や「安全」など優先度の高い事業に絞って追加する。表看板に隠れてムダな事業が紛れ込んでいないか、徹底したチェックが欠かせない。

The issuance of government bonds for implementing the new stimulus package likely will exceed 10 trillion yen, which would mean the amount for the entire fiscal year would surpass 40 trillion yen. If the increased issuance of government bonds causes long-term interest rates to rise, it would result in decreases in private investment and a rise in the yen's value. It is essential the government and the Bank of Japan cooperate via such operations as the central bank's purchase of more government bonds.
 対策に伴う国債発行は10兆円を超え、今年度全体では40兆円を上回る見込みだ。国債増発で長期金利が上がれば、民間投資の減少や円高などの副作用を招く。日銀による国債の買い入れ増額など、政府・日銀の連携が重要だ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, April 10, 2009)
(2009年4月10日01時50分 読売新聞)
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by kiyoshimat | 2009-04-10 10:08 | 英字新聞

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