GDPプラス 本格回復へ詰めを誤るな

The Yomiuri Shimbun(Aug. 18, 2009)
Govt must pull out stops for full-fledged recovery
GDPプラス 本格回復へ詰めを誤るな(8月18日付・読売社説)

Though statistics show the nation's economy has finally hit bottom, this does not mean there is no risk that the economy will fall back into recession.
 景気の下げ止まりが数字で確認されたが、腰折れの危険が完全に去ったわけではない。

The nation's gross domestic product grew 0.9 percent in the April-June period from the previous quarter, which represents an annualized growth rate of 3.7 percent, marking the first expansion in five quarters.
 4~6月期の実質国内総生産(GDP)は、前期比0・9%増、年率換算で3・7%増と、5四半期ぶりにプラス成長となった。

Exports began increasing thanks to the recovery of overseas economies, while on the domestic front, consumer spending and public investment got a shot in the arm from the government's economic-stimulus measures.
 海外景気の持ち直しで輸出が増加に転じたほか、国内需要でも、景気対策の恩恵を受けた消費や公共投資が伸びた。

Though the rapid economic downturn, which had progressed at the worst pace since the war, has halted, annualized real GDP stands at 526 trillion yen, down about 40 trillion yen from a year ago, a state of affairs that fails to convince us that the economy is on a recovery track. The government must not stumble in putting the finishing touches on its policies for a full-scale business recovery.
 戦後最悪のペースだった景気の急落は止まったが、年換算の実質GDPは526兆円と、1年前より約40兆円少なく、回復の実感は乏しい。本格回復の実現へ、政策の詰めを誤ってはならない。

GDP growth in the April-June period was led by overseas demand. During that period, China and many other Asian countries achieved high economic growth. In the United States and Europe, the margin of economic contraction narrowed, while exports of major products, such as electronics parts and automobiles, recovered.
 今回のプラス成長は、外需主導だった。4~6月期は、中国などアジアの多くの国が高い成長率となったほか、欧米もマイナス幅が縮小し、電子部品や自動車など、主力品目の輸出が回復した。

Nevertheless, the prospects for overseas economies remain highly uncertain. Therefore, whether the Japanese economy will be able to get on a stable recovery track hinges on the strength of domestic demand.
 とはいえ、海外経済の先行きは不透明感が強い。日本経済が安定した回復軌道に乗るかどうかは、内需の力強さにかかっている。

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Self-sustained demand crucial

The fact that consumer spending, which accounts for about 60 percent of GDP, moved into positive territory, is encouraging news. In particular, consumption of consumer durables, such as electrical appliances and vehicles, increased significantly. The government's pump-priming measures, such as tax breaks and subsidies for the purchase of eco-friendly vehicles, and the introduction of the eco point system aimed at boosting sales of eco-friendly electrical appliances, have proved quite successful.
 GDPの6割を占める消費がプラスに転じたのは明るい材料だ。特に家電や自動車など耐久消費財の消費が大幅に増えた。エコカー購入時の減税や補助、省エネ家電のエコポイント制度など対策の効果が大きかった。

Public spending, which was boosted in supplementary budgets, showed the largest growth in about 10 years, helping push up GDP.
 補正予算で追加された公共投資も、約10年ぶりの高い伸びとなり、GDPを押し上げた。

The series of economic-stimulus measures put forward by the government and ruling parties since last summer was accompanied by fiscal deterioration. However, the measures can be viewed as appropriate policy decisions because they helped prevent the economy from sinking into a double-dip recession.
 昨夏から政府・与党が相次いで打ち出した景気対策は、財政悪化の副作用を伴ったが、景気の底割れを防いだ点で、妥当な政策判断だったと評価できよう。

But once the pump-priming steps' positive effects have run their course, there will be concern that consumer spending and public investment will slow down.
だが、対策の効果が出尽くせば、消費や公共投資の息切れが心配になる。

It is desirable that domestic demand move into a self-sustaining recovery mode, which is evidenced by the expansion of consumption resulting from higher employment and higher incomes, supported by policy measures. However, the prospects for such a situation are grim.
 政策で下支えしているうちに、雇用・所得の改善による消費拡大など、内需の自律回復への移行が望まれるが、見通しは厳しい。

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Austerity not the answer now

Unemployment continues to rise, and workers' income is on the decline due to cuts in bonus and overtime pay. Under such circumstances, we urge the government to make steady efforts to tackle unemployment and provide financial assistance to those in trouble. The government must not hesitate to take additional measures when necessary.
 失業の増加が続き、ボーナスや残業のカットで労働者の収入も減っている。失業対策や生活支援を粘り強く続け、状況に応じて追加策もためらうべきでない。

Capital investment, another pillar of domestic demand along with consumer spending, has long been sluggish. Additional policies aimed at spurring business activities, such as further investment tax credits, are likely to be necessary.
 消費と並ぶ内需の柱の設備投資も長期低迷が続いている。投資減税の追加など、企業を元気づける政策がさらに必要となろう。

At this stage, the government must not take the short-term economic recovery for granted and switch to belt-tightening policy measures, such as cutting down on public works projects.
 足元の回復に安心して、公共事業削減など緊縮政策に転換することは、厳に慎まねばならない。

We also urge the government--irrespective of the political situation--to avoid delaying the compilation of the fiscal 2010 budget, which would hinder policy implementation.
 政局の都合で来年度予算の編成が遅れ、政策遂行に支障が出る事態も避けるべきだ。

Whichever party or parties take the reins of government following the general election, a business recovery must continue to be the government's top priority in its economic policies.
総選挙の結果、どの党が政権を担うことになっても、「景気最優先」の経済政策を続けねばならない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Aug. 18, 2009)
(2009年8月18日01時22分 読売新聞)
[PR]

by kiyoshimat | 2009-08-18 08:44 | 英字新聞

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