成長戦略 本格回復の展望が見えない

Both LDP, DPJ's recipes for growth lack punch
The Yomiuri Shimbun(Aug. 24, 2009)
成長戦略 本格回復の展望が見えない(8月24日付・読売社説)

Although the nation's economy has come out of its worst period, no clear direction for a full-scale recovery can be seen.
 日本経済は最悪期を脱したが、本格回復への道筋は見えない。

Amid such circumstances, attention in the House of Representatives election campaign is focused on political parties' strategies for achieving a steady economic recovery and stable growth.
 こうした中、衆院選では、着実な景気回復と安定成長に向けた各党の戦略が注目されている。

High economic growth can no longer be expected for the Japanese economy, which is mature. However, economic growth is indispensable for supporting a society in which the majority of people can maintain modestly satisfactory living standards and live without significant anxiety for their future.
 成熟した日本経済には、もはや高度成長は望めまい。だが、多くの国民がそこそこ満足できる生活水準を維持し、将来に大きな不安を感じず暮らせる社会を支えるには、経済成長が欠かせない。

Firstly, the economy needs to be righted again in a steady manner.
 まず、当面の景気を着実に回復させる必要がある。

Secondly, the framework of the nation's economy, which is highly dependent on exports, must be reformed to balance domestic and foreign demand. Structural changes in the economy, including shrinking domestic demand due to a declining population and aging society, and the aggravating factor of international competition resulting from the rise of emerging economies, also need to be dealt with.
 次に、輸出依存が強い経済構造を改め、内需と外需のバランスをとらねばならない。人口減少や高齢化による内需縮小、新興国の台頭による国際競争の激化など、経済の構造変化への対応も求められる。

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LDP policies already on menu

The Liberal Democratic Party has pledged a numerical goal for the economic growth rate and a deadline for achieving it in the party's election campaign platform, promising to achieve 2 percent year-on-year economic growth in the second half of fiscal 2010. The party also said it will create domestic demand worth 40 trillion yen to 60 trillion yen and secure about 2 million jobs over the next three years.
 自民党は、「2010年度後半には年率2%の経済成長を実現する」などと、成長率の目標と時期を公約した。今後3年で40~60兆円の需要を生み出し、約200万人の雇用を確保するという。

Credit should be given to the LDP as the party has vowed to achieve specific goals. Its stated policies of fostering vitality in the private sector through providing support for research in environmental industries and other growth areas while continuing to implement economic stimulus measures also are laudable.
 具体的な目標達成を約束したことは、評価できる。景気対策を続けながら、環境をはじめ成長分野の研究支援などで民間活力を高める手法も妥当だろう。

But specific measures drawn by the LDP are less persuasive, as existing policies are listed in the manifesto, such as expansion of solar power generation and boosting sales of energy-saving home electrical appliances through utilizing the eco point system. They alone do not seem capable of realizing the goals the LDP has set.
 だが、具体策は迫力不足だ。太陽光発電の拡大やエコポイントによる省エネ家電の普及など、既にある政策が並び、目標が実現しそうな手応えが感じられない。

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DPJ not saying who'll pay bill

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party of Japan has not set target figures for economic growth and other issues. The rate of economic growth will affect how major tasks, such as fiscal reconstruction and social security system reform, are approached. If the DPJ claims it is capable of taking the reins of government, it should spell out goals.
 一方の民主党は、成長率などで具体的な目標を掲げなかった。経済成長の状況は、財政再建や社会保障改革など主要課題の取り組みにも影響する。政権を担うというのなら、明示するべきだ。

The DPJ's strategies for economic growth mainly consist of measures to directly provide benefits to boost household budgets, such as child-rearing allowances, making public high school education free of charge and scrapping highway tolls. The DPJ's manifesto says its strategies will boost consumption and transform the nation's economy into one led by domestic demand.
 民主党の成長戦略は、子ども手当や高校無償化、高速道路の無料化などで家計が使えるお金を増やす「直接給付型」の支援中心だ。消費を拡大し、日本経済を内需主導に転換するとしている。

While households receiving benefits will increase their consumption, domestic demand will cool off if public works projects are slashed. Reviewing already-formulated budgets also has downsides. In the first place, consumption will not become self-sustaining merely by dint of the government handing out cash to support household budgets.
 給付を受けた世帯は消費を増やすとしても、他方で公共事業が削減されれば内需を冷やす。予算の組み替えにはマイナス面もある。そもそも、家計への予算ばらまきで消費を増やし続けられまい。

To expand consumption steadily, it would make more sense to enhance trust in the social security system, thus shifting the excessive amount of savings, which households hoard because of fears about the future, into use for consumption.
 安定した消費拡大には、社会保障制度の信頼性を高め、家計が将来不安で抱えた「過剰貯蓄」が、消費に回るようにすればいい。

Holding off on raising the consumption tax rate for the next four years, which the DPJ has pledged in its campaign platform, will not secure stable financial resources that are vital for strengthening the social security system. A mood of anxiety will spread, dampening consumption.
 民主党が公約する「消費税率4年凍結」では、社会保障の強化に必要な安定財源の確保が見通せない。不安が一段と強まり、消費拡大には逆効果となろう。

We hope that DPJ lawmakers will engage in fundamental discussions on strategies for economic growth with an eye toward the future.
 将来を見据えた、骨太の成長戦略を論議してもらいたい。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Aug. 24, 2009)
(2009年8月24日01時26分 読売新聞)
[PR]

by kiyoshimat | 2009-08-24 07:53 | 英字新聞

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