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金融政策―デフレの悪循環を阻め

--The Asahi Shimbun, Nov. 6(IHT/Asahi: November 7,2009)
EDITORIAL: Financial policies.
金融政策―デフレの悪循環を阻め

In a deflationary spiral, prices of goods and services go into a tailspin, trimming sales revenues, lowering production and shrinking payrolls at companies. In times like that, the economy as a whole continues to shrink, pushing down prices further. In light of the state of the domestic economy, it will have to keep walking, at least for the time being, on the brink of falling into a dreadful downward spiral.
 デフレスパイラル。物価が全般に下がり、企業の売上高や生産、雇用が減少する。経済全体が縮小し、物価はさらに下がる。そんな悪循環の縁を、日本経済は注意深く歩み続けなければならないようだ。

The Bank of Japan, in its latest report titled "Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices," said prices will keep falling through fiscal 2011. It said the economy will likely start growing again in fiscal 2010 on the back of increased exports to emerging economies, gradually decreasing the margin of decline in prices.
But it is by no means certain that this rather rosy scenario will come to pass. There is no room for optimism at the moment.
 日銀が先に発表した「展望リポート」で、物価下落は11年度まで続くとの予測が示された。新興国への輸出をテコに経済成長率は10年度からプラスに転じ、物価下落幅も徐々に小さくなるという見立てだが、そううまくいくかどうか。楽観は禁物である。

After the collapse of the asset-inflated economy in the early 1990s, Japan became the first industrial nation since the end of World War II to experience deflation. Now, the threat of full-blown deflation is growing again in the aftermath of the global economic crisis. Japan has yet to emerge fully from the situation where falling prices of a broad range of goods and services are putting a strain on its economy.
 日本はバブル経済の崩壊後、先進国として第2次大戦後初のデフレに陥った。広範な物価下落が経済を圧迫する構図から抜け出せないまま、世界危機でデフレが再び深刻化しつつある。

Policymakers need to take utmost care to prevent the economy from tumbling into a deflationary spiral.
スパイラルに落ち込まないよう細心の注意が必要なのだ。

Deflation is caused by a shortage of overall demand. The only effective remedy for deflation is a mix of fiscal and monetary expansion to stimulate the economy. It is, however, important to combine such economic stimulus measures with steps to nurture new industries and create jobs based on a strategy for medium- and long-term economic growth. Simply trying to relieve a demand shortage won't be enough.
 デフレは総需要の不足から起きる。これを克服するには当面、財政と金融の両面からの景気刺激に頼るしかないが、それを新しい産業と雇用の創出に向けた中長期の経済成長戦略と組み合わせることが大切だ。たんに需要不足を補うだけではいけない。

Meanwhile, the central bank has announced that it will phase out part of the measures to support corporate financing it introduced following the failure of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers in September last year. The BOJ will terminate its program to purchase commercial paper, a short-term unsecured promissory note, and corporate bonds at the end of this year.
 一方、日銀は昨秋のリーマン・ショック以降に打ち出した企業の資金繰り支援策の一部を段階的に解除すると発表した。手形の一種であるコマーシャルペーパーと、社債の買い入れを年内で終える。

As applications for the program have fallen sharply in recent months, the central bank has decided the program is no longer necessary.
最近は利用が減り、使命を終えたと判断した。

The BOJ has also decided to close at the end of March a special lending program to provide financial institutions with unlimited funds for corporate lending. Under this program, the BOJ extends loans to banks at an annual interest rate of 0.1 percent, securing corporate bonds submitted to the central bank and other debt securities as collateral.
 社債などを担保として金融機関に金利0.1%で無制限に企業向け資金を貸す企業金融支援特別オペレーションを来年3月で終えることも決めた。

These decisions reflect receding concerns about the serious credit contraction that temporarily made it hard even for large companies to raise funds. If, however, the economy falls into a second bottom, the central bank should not hesitate to revive these measures. Flexible responses to changing economic conditions are vital.
 いずれも、大企業の資金繰りすら危うくした異常な金融収縮がひとまず収まった状況を映したものだ。今後もし景気が二番底に陥れば、再び発動することもためらうべきではない。臨機応変の姿勢が欠かせない。

Market players should not regard these moves as the beginning of a so-called exit strategy, which means ending the extremely easy monetary policy that is now in place.
 市場関係者も、これらの措置が金融緩和に幕を引く「出口戦略」の始まりであると受け取ってはならない。

As the improved earnings results for the first half of the current fiscal year have indicated, large companies are beginning to recover. With industrial production still at a low level, however, small and midsize companies remain stuck in dire straits. A significant increase in bankruptcies among them could prolong this deflation and recession.
 中間決算の発表に表れたように大企業の収益は持ち直してきたが、鉱工業生産がなお低水準にあるため、中小企業の経営は危機的な状況が続いている。持ちこたえられなくなった企業の倒産が増えれば、デフレと不況はますます長期化しかねない。

Concerns about the crisis among small and midsize firms have prompted the government to submit a bill to the extraordinary Diet session to help ease their financing difficulties. The BOJ has also pledged to maintain easy credit conditions tenaciously, suggesting it intends to ensure that funds will be flowing from financial institutions into small and midsize businesses.
 政府が臨時国会に出した「貸し渋り対策」の法案も中小企業の危機を重視したものだ。日銀も「金融緩和の状態をねばり強く続ける」とし、金融機関から中小企業に資金がしみ出すことを狙っている。

To prevent the economy from slipping into a double-dip recession, policymakers should make every effort to support the financing of smaller businesses while enhancing measures to create jobs.
 景気を二番底に陥らせないためにも、当面は雇用対策の強化と並んで中小企業向けの金融に力を注ぐことが大切である。

We hope the government and the BOJ will work together to take effective policy measures to save the economy.
 政府と日銀が連動することで、大きな効果を発揮するよう期待したい。
[PR]

by kiyoshimat | 2009-11-08 12:14 | 英字新聞

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