新成長戦略 目標実現の具体策が見えない

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Dec. 31, 2009)
Govt's new growth strategy short on details
新成長戦略 目標実現の具体策が見えない(12月31日付・読売社説)

Having an ambitious goal alone is not enough to ensure a bright future. The government's newly unveiled growth strategy for a "shining Japan" lacks vital substance in that it fails to illuminate how to achieve these goals in detail.
The strategy, the basic policy of which was approved by the Cabinet on Wednesday, sets a target of achieving a more than 2 percent annual growth in the gross domestic product in real terms through fiscal 2020. In nominal terms, the growth target is aimed at staying above 3 percent.
 高い目標を掲げるだけで、明るい未来は開けない。肝心なのは実現する具体的手法の明示だが、そこが欠けている。
 政府は30日の閣議で、新たな成長戦略の基本方針「輝きのある日本へ」を決定した。
 国内総生産(GDP)を2020年度まで実質で年2%、名目は3%を上回るペースで成長させる数値目標を掲げた。

This means that in 10 years, the nominal GDP is expected to grow from the 470 trillion yen of this fiscal year to 650 trillion yen. But the fact is that the nominal GDP has been in negative territory for the past six straight quarters, pushing GDP down by 50 trillion yen. As the economy has entered a deflationary phase, which also shrinks the GDP, obstacles to reaching the target are extremely high.
 名目GDPは今年度の470兆円から650兆円に増える計算だが、現状はここ6四半期連続のマイナスで、50兆円も減った。名目GDPをしぼませるデフレに再び陥ったこともあり、目標達成のハードルは極めて高い。

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Solid ends, vague means

In its growth strategy, the government declared it would pursue a "third way" of seeking the creation of new demand, instead of relying on public works projects or following the principle of market fundamentalism as seen under the administration of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. The new stance touted by the administration of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama appears to be in line with a policy pledge to "shift from concrete to human beings," meaning a departure from an industrial structure heavily dependent on public works projects.
 成長戦略は公共事業依存でも、小泉路線のような市場原理主義でもない、新需要の創造という「第3の道」を進むとしている。「コンクリートから人へ」などの政権公約に沿った考え方だろう。

The strategy listed two areas--the environment and energy, and medical and nursing care services--that the government intends to focus on and shore up. In these areas, which Japan can boast of having strengths in, there will be a goal of creating new demand worth 100 trillion yen and 4.2 new million jobs.
 具体的には、環境・エネルギーと医療・介護を、日本が強みを持つ2分野として集中的にテコ入れし、100兆円の需要と420万人の雇用を新たに生み出す。

The government also intends to stimulate trade with other Asian nations--whose economies are continuing to grow fast--support scientific and technological development and strengthen measures to sustain employment.
 高成長が続くアジアとの取引活性化や、科学技術の支援、雇用下支えの強化なども図る。

There is nothing wrong with the direction of these policy courses. But, in terms of details in the measures, we find little difference with those included in about a dozen growth strategies hammered out by the governments of the past decade.
 方向性に問題はないが、具体策は政府が過去10年に出した十指に余る成長戦略と大差ない。

This is likely because the strategy was compiled from worn-out proposals submitted by ministries and agencies concerned. As it took only half a month to devise the strategy, it gives an impression that the government threw it together in order to thwart criticism that the current administration has no growth strategy.
 関係府省が持ち寄った案をまとめたため、新味のないアイデアが並んだのだろう。策定作業は約半月と短く、成長戦略がないという批判をかわす「やっつけ仕事」との印象もぬぐえない。

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Get private sector input

The government intends, by June, to complete the growth strategy by putting flesh on these basic policy bones and provide a road map for achieving these goals.
 政府は来年6月までに、この基本方針に肉付けをして成長戦略を完成させ、実現に向けた工程表も示す方針という。

But it would be better to drastically review the strategy by, for example, inviting ideas widely from the private sector and narrowing down the list of measures to those that appear to have the greatest potential effect and feasibility. There also should be mention of how necessary funds for nurturing new industries and supporting technological development should be allocated.
 だがこの際、民間からアイデアを広く募って、効果や実現性の高いものに絞り込むなど、抜本的に練り直した方がいい。新産業の育成や技術支援に必要な費用をどう工面するのかも示すべきだ。

If the Hatoyama administration sticks to its policy pledge not to raise the consumption tax rate for four years, it is unlikely that it will be able to secure a stable revenue source to implement policy measures. It must not have faith in a "rising tide" theory of economic growth being able to increase tax revenues.
 消費税率を4年間は上げないという政権公約にこだわれば、安定した財源は得られまい。「経済成長で税収が増えれば賄える」とする“上げ潮”依存は禁物だ。

It also is necessary to show the path to fiscal reconstruction for the mid- to long-run in order to ease people's anxiety about the future of social security and other matters.
 中長期的な財政再建の道筋も同時に示し、社会保障などの将来不安を和らげる必要もある。

Unless measures are taken to prevent a further economic decline and solve the deflation problem, any great growth strategy will merely end up being pie in the sky.
 景気の底割れを防ぎ、デフレを解消しないと、どんな立派な成長戦略も絵に描いたモチになる。

The government has cut spending for public works projects by nearly 20 percent in the fiscal 2010 budget, compared with the current fiscal year. Spending for urgently needed projects such as construction work to improve the earthquake resistance of primary and middle school buildings also has been reduced. These projects should be revived and used to help economic recovery.
 政府は来年度予算の公共事業を前年度より2割近く減らし、小中学校の耐震化など急ぐべき事業も削った。これらを復活して、景気回復に役立てるべきだ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Dec. 31, 2009)
(2009年12月31日01時16分 読売新聞)
[PR]

by kiyoshimat | 2009-12-31 09:45 | 英字新聞

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