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日銀リポート デフレ脱却には時間がかかる

The Yomiuri Shimbun (May. 3, 2010)
Escaping deflationary environment takes time
日銀リポート デフレ脱却には時間がかかる(5月2日付・読売社説)

When will the nation's persistent deflation come to an end? The Bank of Japan presented one answer to this question in its recent "Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices" report, in which the central bank envisages the prospects of economic growth and consumer price trends.
 しつこいデフレはいつ終わるのか。日銀が、経済成長や物価の先行きを示す「展望リポート」で一つの答えを示した。

With respect to the outlook for consumer prices, the Bank of Japan maintained its projection that the core consumer price index for fiscal 2010 would fall 0.5 percent from a year earlier.
For fiscal 2011, however, the central bank revised its previous forecast, from a 0.2 percent drop to a 0.1 percent increase. If realized, it would be the first time in three years that the core CPI will have risen.
 消費者物価の見通しについて、2010年度はこれまでと同じ「前年度比0・5%下落」としたが、11年度は「0・2%の下落」から、「0・1%の上昇」へと修正した。実現すれば3年ぶりの物価上昇となる。

However, it is premature to state that the data enables us to see a way out of the deflationary environment. The government and the Bank of Japan should not become optimistic and must not relax their policies to ensure the nation's economy escapes from deflation.
 だが、これをもってデフレの出口が見えてきたと考えるのは早計だろう。政府・日銀は決して楽観せず、デフレ脱却に向けた政策の手を緩めてはならない。

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Light at end of tunnel?

The Bank of Japan also projected in its report the possibility that prices would enter positive territory during fiscal 2011.
 展望リポートは、物価が11年度中に「プラスの領域に入る可能性が展望できる」とした。

Meanwhile, the central bank predicts steady positive growth for the nation's real gross domestic product, with 1.8 percent growth in fiscal 2010 and 2 percent growth in fiscal 2011.
 国内総生産(GDP)の実質成長率も、10年度が1・8%、11年度も2・0%と、堅調なプラス成長を見込んでいる。

In view of the current economic and price conditions, however, the bank's projections appear to be somewhat optimistic.
 だが、現在の経済・物価の情勢からみて、日銀の見立ては少々、甘くないだろうか。

The nation's economy continues to experience weakening prices, with supply exceeding demand by as much as 30 trillion yen. Consumers, who have become accustomed to deflation, continue to sit on their wallets, while retailers and manufacturers continue to engage in fierce price wars.
 日本経済は、30兆円も需要が足りず、物価が下がりやすい状態が続いている。デフレに慣れた消費者の財布のひもはすっかり固くなり、小売業界やメーカーの安売り競争は依然として激しい。

The government data showed the nation's core CPI fell 1.2 percent in March from a year earlier, the same rate as in February. The recovery in consumer prices has been marking time recently.
 3月の消費者物価は、下落率が1・2%と前月と同じだった。物価の回復は、このところ足踏み状態が続いている。

In March, prices of flat-panel TVs fell 36 percent while those of air conditioners dropped 21 percent from a year earlier, pushing down the entire CPI. The current deflationary environment is extremely stubborn. Even energy-saving electrical appliances that have been selling relatively well thanks to the government's subsidy program saw poor sales unless they were perceived to be bargains.
 3月は、薄型テレビが36%、エアコンも21%下落して、物価全体を押し下げた。政府の購入支援で販売が好調な省エネ家電でさえ、割安感がないと売れない状況が、デフレのしぶとさを示す。

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'Good' vs 'bad' escape

Meanwhile, gasoline prices rose 16 percent in March, reducing the overall fall in the CPI by 0.3 percentage point.
 一方で、ガソリン価格は16%上がり、物価全体の下落率を0・3ポイント圧縮させた。

The increase in gasoline prices continued last month, while the costs of public utilities, including electricity and gas, are scheduled to be hiked in the future. Prices of raw materials, including iron and steel, and chemical fiber, also are on the rise.
 4月もガソリン価格の上昇は続き、これから電気・ガスなど公共料金の値上げも予定されている。鉄鋼や化学繊維などの原材料も高くなってきた。

One reason that the Bank of Japan revised its price projections upward is due to the growing trend of price increases for energy and other items related to natural resources, in line with rising prices in those categories internationally.
 国際市況の上昇を背景に、エネルギーや資源関連の品目で価格上昇が広がってきたことも、日銀が物価見通しを上方修正した一因と見られている。

However, high prices for utilities and raw materials negatively impact the nation's economy. This is because companies' profits wane as firms cannot raise prices to desired levels amid severe competition.
 だが、光熱費や原材料が先導する物価高は、景気にマイナスとなる。厳しい販売競争の中で、企業は思うように販売価格を上げられず、利益が薄くなるからだ。

This "bad escape from deflation" is problematic, whereas the "good escape from deflation" through increased demand is desirable.
 こうした「悪いデフレ脱却」では困る。需要の増加による「良いデフレ脱却」が望ましい。

Conquering deflation is still at the halfway point. Toward this end, the Bank of Japan should actively continue its monetary easing policy and should not hesitate to implement additional measures when necessary.
 デフレの克服は道半ばである。日銀は積極的な金融緩和を続け、必要に応じて追加策もためらうべきではない。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, May 2, 2010)
(2010年5月2日01時16分 読売新聞)
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by kiyoshimat | 2010-05-03 10:00 | 英字新聞

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