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中国GDP 景気失速を食い止める対策を

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Jul. 15, 2012)
China must try to halt economic slowdown
中国GDP 景気失速を食い止める対策を(7月14日付・読売社説)

Spillover effects of the European debt crisis have become a drag on the Chinese economy, an engine of world growth.
 欧州債務危機が波及して、世界の成長エンジンである中国経済に急ブレーキがかかってきた。

China's slowdown could deal a serious blow to already gloomy prospects for the world economy. Measures to halt the slowdown are needed.
 低迷する世界経済の先行きに、さらに深刻な影響を与えかねない。景気失速を食い止める対策が求められよう。

The Chinese government has announced the country's real gross domestic product grew 7.6 percent in the April-June period over a year earlier, falling below 8 percent for the first time in about three years. The country's growth slowed for a sixth straight quarter.
 中国政府が発表した2012年4~6月期の国内総生産(GDP)の伸び率は、実質で前年同期比7・6%増となり、約3年ぶりに8%の大台を割った。成長率の低下は6四半期連続である。

Eight percent growth is regarded as the minimum needed for China to maintain its economic activity and employment levels. China's stagnating growth since the so-called Lehman Shock in 2008 has been significant.
 中国にとって、8%成長は、経済活動や雇用を維持する最低ラインとされる。2008年のリーマン・ショック後以来の低成長にとどまった意味は少なくない。

The economic weakness is mainly due to the slowdown in exports to Europe and other countries amid the lingering European debt woes. A slump in public investment and corporate capital spending has sent the country's manufacturing activity into decline. Consumer spending has also lost impetus. These three areas--exports, manufacturing and consumer spending--all slowed together.
 景気減速は、欧州危機の長期化に伴い、欧州向けなどの「輸出」が鈍化したのが主因だ。公共投資や企業の設備投資が落ち込んで、「生産」が下降線をたどり、「個人消費」の勢いも鈍った。3本柱がそろって振るわなかった。

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Steps to shore up economy

Last week, China's central bank lowered key interest rates for two consecutive months. Before announcing the GDP numbers Friday, China apparently aimed to reduce the news' negative impact on the economy by slashing the rates.
 中国当局は先週、2か月連続で政策金利を引き下げた。成長率の発表に先手を打ち、景気を下支えする狙いだろう。

Beijing has taken a series of steps to shore up the economy, such as introducing an incentive program for buyers of energy-saving home electronic appliances and eco-friendly vehicles and bringing future infrastructure investment plans forward.
 省エネ家電やエコカーの購入支援策、インフラ投資の前倒しを決めるなど、財政面からも、次々と景気対策を打ち出している。

The Chinese government has lowered the country's growth outlook for this year from 8 percent to 7.5 percent. It must be wary now that its economy has begun to cool at a pace faster than it anticipated.
 中国政府は、今年の成長目標を従来の8%から7・5%に引き下げている。だが、予想を上回るペースでの減速に、景気失速を警戒し始めたに違いない。

China plans to change its top leadership this autumn. Even though China cannot achieve high growth at a rate of more than 10 percent as it once did, moderate growth must be secured to enable the leadership transition to go smoothly.
 中国は今秋、最高指導部の交代を予定している。かつての10%以上の高成長は再現できなくても、「中成長」は、指導部交代を円滑に進めるうえでも、死守しなければならない目標だろう。

However, China's economic prospects are unclear.
 だが、先行きは不透明だ。

The debt crisis in Europe, China's major export destination, has yet to be resolved, while the U.S. economy has seen signs of slowdown. Alarmed by the current situation, the International Monetary Fund next week reportedly plans to lower its forecast for global economic growth.
 主要輸出先である欧州の危機はまだ収束せず、米国経済も停滞気味だ。事態を懸念した国際通貨基金(IMF)は週明けに、世界経済見通しを下方修正する。

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Boost domestic demand

To achieve stable growth, China urgently needs to shift its economy to one led by domestic demand that will allow it not to depend excessively on exports. For that purpose, the country should spend more on environmental measures and infrastructure projects, such as development of subway systems.
 中国が安定成長を実現するには、輸出に過度に依存しない内需主導型経済への転換が急務だ。環境対策や地下鉄整備などのインフラ追加投資が必要になる。

As commodity prices have been steady, China also has room to take additional monetary easing measures. Steering the economy in the right direction is difficult, but we urge Beijing to consider effective measures as soon as possible.
 物価が沈静化していることから追加金融緩和の余地もある。舵(かじ)取りは難しいが、効果的な政策を速やかに検討してもらいたい。

Brazil, India and South Korea have cut key interest rates one after another. Moves to ease monetary policy have gained momentum in the world.
 ブラジル、インド、韓国も相次いで利下げし、世界的に金融緩和の流れが加速している。

Meanwhile, it is of concern that there is no sign that the extreme strength of the yen will end soon, in light of a spate of rate cuts and the sluggishness of the U.S. and European economies. It is vital for both the government and the Bank of Japan to better respond to the situation by trying foreign exchange intervention and other possible measures.
 利下げラッシュと、欧米経済の低迷を背景に、超円高に歯止めがかからないことは問題だ。政府・日銀は為替介入を含め、機動的に対応することが重要である。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 14, 2012)
(2012年7月14日01時15分 読売新聞)
[PR]

by kiyoshimat | 2012-07-17 06:34 | 英字新聞

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