異次元緩和3年 限界認め、軌道修正を

--The Asahi Shimbun, April 5
EDITORIAL: BOJ should reconsider aggressive easing policy three years after its implementation
(社説)異次元緩和3年 限界認め、軌道修正を

Three long years have passed since the Bank of Japan, under the leadership of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, launched its “different dimension” policy of aggressive monetary expansion.
 日本銀行が黒田東彦(はるひこ)総裁のもとで「異次元」の金融緩和を始めてから3年。

The new program started as a short-term, turbocharged effort to achieve the central bank’s policy goals within two years. The deadline passed and another full year has gone by, but the central bank has yet to hit its inflation target of 2 percent.
2年間の「短期決戦」として始まったはずの政策は、2年がすぎ、3年たっても、掲げてきた2%のインフレ目標を達成できていない。

While the BOJ has repeatedly pushed back the target date, negative effects of the radical monetary easing policy have started making themselves felt. The risks it poses to Japan’s overall economic health are steadily growing.
 日銀が期限を次々と延ばす間に、緩和に伴う副作用が目につき始め、抱えるリスクはじわじわと増している。

The BOJ should now change tack instead of enhancing and expanding this risky approach.
日銀が実行すべきなのは緩和の強化ではなく、軌道修正を図ることだ。

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s pro-growth economic policy, known as Abenomics, is composed of three “arrows,” or key components. They are bold monetary easing, flexible fiscal spending and a growth strategy designed to stimulate private-sector investment.
 安倍政権の経済政策「アベノミクス」は、(1)大胆な金融緩和(2)機動的な財政出動(3)民間投資を促す成長戦略の「3本の矢」からなる。

The Abe administration has unveiled “new three arrows” focused on measures to support nursing care and child care. But the basic framework of its economic policy agenda has remained unchanged.
政権は介護や子育て政策の充実に力点を置く「新3本の矢」を打ち出したが、政策の骨格は変わっていない。

The second and third arrows of Abe's original blueprint are nothing new. Most of his predecessors tried to boost the economy through fiscal stimulus packages comprising massive government spending and new plans to put the economy on an upward trajectory.
 当初の2、3本目の矢は目新しいものではない。多くの政権が景気対策で財政を膨らませ、成長戦略も練ってきた。

The first arrow, the extraordinary program to expand the money supply, is the unique feature of Abenomics that constitutes its core.
1本目の異次元緩和こそが異色でありアベノミクスの柱と言える。

Under this program, the BOJ buys huge amounts of government bonds to flood the economy with liquidity and thereby guides long-term interest rates to historically low levels.
 日銀が大量の国債を買いあげ、巨額のマネーを市場に注ぎ込む。そうして長期金利を歴史的な低水準に引き下げる。

Abe selected Kuroda as the central bank chief to preside over such unprecedented monetary expansion. This move, made under the slogan of “escape from deflation,” is aimed at putting the onus solely on the central bank’s monetary policy, which doesn’t impose a new financial burden on the public immediately.
安倍政権は日銀にそんな大胆な金融緩和を行わせようと黒田氏を日銀総裁に選んだ。「デフレ脱却」を旗印に、ただちに国民負担が生じるわけではない金融政策に寄りかかる構図である。

WEAK RIPPLE EFFECTS
 ■弱かった波及効果

Initially, many economists praised Abenomics as a successful policy effort because it led to a weaker yen and higher stock prices. As a result, Japanese companies, especially export-oriented manufacturers, notched record earnings, which translated into pay growth, to a certain extent.
 当初、アベノミクスを「成功している」と評価する声が多かったのは、円安と株高が進んだためだ。輸出産業を中心に企業が過去最高水準の収益をあげ、賃上げも一定程度は実現した。

But the benefits of Abenomics were overestimated in a sense. When the Abe administration was inaugurated at the end of 2012, the yen had already started falling against the dollar and the euro, which had strengthened due to recovery of the U.S. economy and the defused debt crisis in Europe.
 ただ、その効果は過大評価された面がある。政権が発足した2012年末は米国経済の回復と欧州金融危機の沈静化を受けたドル高・ユーロ高に伴い、円安が始まっていた。

The upturn of the global economy was setting the stage for a stock market rally. Abenomics mainly served as a catalyst that caused these factors to start kicking in.
世界経済の好転で株高の環境も整いつつあった。アベノミクスがその背中を押した、というのが実態だろう。

Many economists point out that Abenomics has produced far fewer benefits for small and midsize businesses and most workers than the gains enjoyed by large companies and well-to-do individual investors.
 大企業や裕福な個人投資家が受けた恩恵に比べ、中小企業や大多数の働き手への効果が乏しいとの指摘は根強い。

The policy has failed to produce so-called “trickle-down effects,” which mean increased wealth in one sector of the economy produces benefits for other sectors as well. Japanese people’s real income has barely grown.
富が滴り落ちるように広がる「トリクルダウン」は実現せず、国民の実質所得は伸び悩む。

Japan’s real economic growth in the past three years has been by and large slower than during the previous government led by the then-Democratic Party of Japan. Abe’s economic policy program has not given any big boost to the real economy in terms of growth in consumer spending or business investment.
ここ3年の実質経済成長率はその前の民主党政権時代より総じて低く、消費や投資という実体経済への波及は弱々しい。

When the BOJ made another radical move to ramp up the money supply in February by introducing negative interest rates for part of commercial banks’ reserves at the central bank, the unwanted side effects became more pronounced.
 日銀が2月、金融機関が日銀に預ける当座預金の一部に初めてマイナス金利を導入すると、副作用が目立ち始めた。

Due partly to deteriorating economic conditions in many other countries, Japan’s stock and currency markets have been fluctuating wildly since then.
海外経済の動揺もあって、株式市場や外国為替市場では乱高下が繰り返し起こっている。

The negative interest rate policy has hit the earnings of financial institutions by reducing their profit margins and cast a pall over the long-term prospects of pension funds management.
マイナス金利は、利ざやが取れない金融機関の収益を苦しくし、資産を長期運用する年金などの持続性にも影を落とす。

DANGER OF GETTING CAUGHT IN ITS OWN TRAP
 ■自縄自縛の危うさ

Still, the BOJ has remained optimistic about the effectiveness of its monetary policy. It has kept claiming it can achieve the inflation target since it still has abundant policy options to use.
 それでも日銀は強気の姿勢を崩していない。「やれる手はいくらでもある。目標は達成できる」と言い続けている。

Last year, speaking at an international conference, Kuroda referred to a passage in the story of Peter Pan saying, “The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it,” and said, “Yes, what we need is a positive attitude and conviction.”
 黒田総裁は昨年、国際会議で語った。「ピーターパンの物語に『飛べるかどうかを疑った瞬間に永遠に飛べなくなってしまう』という言葉がある。大切なのは前向きな姿勢と確信だ」

His “different dimension” monetary policy plays on people’s expectations. The idea is that if the BOJ sets a specific inflation target and promises to take every possible step to achieve it both businesses and consumers will start spending their money because of their inflationary expectations.
 異次元緩和は、期待に働きかける政策である。日銀がインフレ目標を示し、あらゆる手を打つと約束すれば、企業も消費者もそうなると考えて投資や消費におカネを使うようになる。そんな考えにもとづく。

In fact, however, the inflation rate has remained around zero due partly to lower prices of oil and other energy resources. The BOJ’s policy has not awakened inflationary expectations.
 実際には、原油などの資源安もあって足元の物価の伸びはほぼゼロで推移している。インフレ期待は高まっていない。

The BOJ seems to have avoided admitting this fact because of concerns about dousing expectations for rising prices. If so, the central bank has gotten caught in a trap it has created itself.
それでも、期待に水を差すような説明はできない。日銀はそんな自縄自縛に陥っていないか。

The BOJ already owns more than 30 percent of the government bonds outstanding, and this rate will keep rising.
 日銀はすでに国債発行残高の3割超を保有しており、比率はさらに上がっていく。

If the central bank starts financing the government’s debt through its bond-purchasing program, fiscal discipline could collapse, triggering tumbles of government bond prices and the yen’s value.
国債発行という政府の借金を日銀が手助けする「財政ファイナンス」に陥れば、財政規律が揺らぎ、国債価格や円相場の急落リスクが高まりかねない。

The longer the BOJ continues prolonging and expanding its aggressive monetary policy, the bigger the risk for the Japanese economy.
異次元緩和を強化し、長びかせるほど、日本経済が抱える危うさはマグマのようにたまっていく。

The central banks, including the BOJ, are guaranteed independence from the governments of their countries to ensure that they will not serve as policy tools of the governments. If they allow their actions to be dictated by the government, the public will have to pay the price for their distorted and misguided monetary policies.
 日銀を含む各国の中央銀行が政府からの独立を保証されているのは、政府の道具となって金融政策がゆがみ、そのツケを国民が払う事態を避けるためだ。

The BOJ should ask itself whether it is acting as an agent for the government.
今の日銀は政権の下請け機関になっていないか。

IRRESPONSIBILITY OF RELYING TOTALLY ON BOJ
 ■日銀頼みの無責任

The Abe administration has started considering additional measures to stoke economic growth, including a supplementary budget. There are also rumors that the administration is considering another postponement of the scheduled hike of the consumption tax rate to 10 percent.
 安倍政権は補正予算編成を含む経済対策を検討し始め、10%への消費増税の再延期論もくすぶる。

The government would be acting in a grossly irresponsible manner if it takes such fiscal policy measures that apparently assume that the BOJ will continue purchasing government bonds.
日銀による国債の買い支えがずっと続くことを前提にしたかのような財政運営は無責任である。

The government needs to start taking steps to restore a healthy and sustainable fiscal policy with an eye to future generations.
 将来の世代も見すえ、持続可能な財政へと再建していく。

At the same time, the government should tackle structural reforms to ensure economic growth driven by private-sector investment and consumption. These are what the administration should do.
同時に民間の投資や消費が引っぱる日本経済の発展をめざし、地道に構造改革に取り組む。それが政権の仕事だろう。

To prompt the government to embark on such sound policy efforts, the BOJ needs to explain the limitations of the effects of its radical monetary policy more clearly and in more detail to the administration.
 そう促すためにも、日銀は異次元緩和の限界について、もっと政権に対して説明する必要がある。

That would be a good first step toward correcting problems with its policy stance, which is excessively biased toward monetary easing.
それが、「緩和強化」一辺倒の路線を修正する第一歩となる。
[PR]

by kiyoshimat | 2016-04-07 09:48 | 英字新聞

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